So If They're Printing More Money ...

Posted On: 2006-10-11

...Why am I so broke?
So late last week Google spent $1.6 billion buying You Tube - a business started with a credit card and yet to make a profit and today we read that someone (just who that someone happens to be is a little unclear) is going to buy Facebook for a very large sum of money too.

Perhaps with all that money floating around we could be forgiven for thinking that everything on the world economic front is rosy and all the pigs are fed and watered and ready to fly ... Sir!

You might also think that any talk of the economy has little to do with adult webmasters but then if you think that don't leave your head in the sand for too long or you're going to suffocate.

Of course you can say that the demand for what we sell will always be there - even if the demand might be somewhat reduced so we should survive - and you would be right but some things that many of us have come to depend on may be a whole lot different.

Slowly but surely the news of an impending collapse of the housing market in the US is increasing and every time there is an increase in the interest rate the potential for that collapse comes closer and closer. If it does collapse then the effect on the US economy will be significant.

So what do those in authority do? They can either fight inflation, which means continuing to increase interest rates, and so protect the value of the US dollar or they can simply print more money and keep the economy rumbling along for a few more years and hope that somewhere down the track someone will wave a magic wand and things will improve.

To make matters worse the US is starting to move towards another frenetic US presidential campaign so no one really wants to do anything that will affect economy too much. That means that some commentators are expecting that the Federal Reserve will decide to protect the economy rather than the dollar.

If that happens the value of the US dollar will tumble on the international money markets and that will affect all webmasters. In the past it really only affected those of us who live overseas but this time things are different and it's going to affect everyone ... although in slightly different ways.

Last time the US dollar dropped in value US webmasters had little sympathy for those of us who seemed to earn so much more when we converted the US dollar to whatever our local currency might have been. But don't be quick to gloat this time because this time you guys will feel the effect.

You see, as the value of your dollar drops so the cost of goods and services coming into your country will cost more and guess what? You guys are now spending a lot of money with service providers overseas and if the cost of your dollar drops then we will be increasing the amount we charge you.

Even the cost of Indian and Asian outsourcing will go up and you guys will have to pay it or find someone in the US to do the work instead. Sadly all that outsourcing that you thought saved you money in the past also killed off a lot of the local support people and you will find it hard to source the work you want from within the States.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not gloating for one single minute. All I am trying to do here is sound a warning so that if the crunch does come you guys there in the States will not be caught unprepared. If you know that there is a likelihood of something like this happening then you should be able to prepare and be ready if it should happen.

And it's also a warning for those of us outside the US. Those webmasters in Europe and the UK have already seen their affiliate income drop to parity with the US dollar and even well below parity. If the Federal Reserve does sacrifice the US dollar in favor of the economy then you can expect to see parity disappear and your income fall even further.

So now is the time to start looking seriously at your plans for the future and to assess what the impact would be on those plans if the US dollar does fall. Be realistic about your plans and be prepared to postpone some of them if a fall in the value of the US dollar would ruin your chances of succeeding.

Genuine business is always about planning for the long term and looking well beyond the end of your nose. If you have managed to survive without doing it in the past then you're lucky; the economic gods have been with you but don't count on them smiling on you forever because right now even they are scratching their heads.